Even the supercomputers do… flips – From 5% in August, Liverpool are favorites for the title

5.1% that became 59.3% in 86 days turning Liverpool into first favorite to win this year’s Premier League.

On August 15 the Opta supercomputer gave the Reds a mere 5.1% chance of being crowned champions compared to Manchester City’s beastly 82.2% and ambitious Arsenal’s 12.2%.

The Citizens’ 2-1 defeat by Brighton and Liverpool’s 2-0 win over Aston Villa saw the Reds move five points clear of the champions while turning the tide of the title race.

Arne Slott’s pass rate has now soared to 59.3%, City has dropped to 36.2% and Arsenal to 4.1%.

The dramatic change in rates was caused by two historical performances. Arne Slott became the first manager since Guus Hiddink to start the Premier League with 28 points from the first 11 games and the first in history to lead Liverpool to 15 wins from 17 games in all competitions. It should also be noted that in the 2019/2020 season, Liverpool collected 31 points in the first 11 matches and in the end was crowned champion with 99 points.

While the Reds are flying on the pitch, City have four consecutive defeats in the league, League Cup and Champions League, a performance that had to be repeated since 2006 (six consecutive defeats) when Giorgos Samaras was playing in the team. For Pep Guardiola, however, it is the first time he drinks such a bitter glass.

His previous worst performance was three straight defeats and a penalty shoot-out in the Cup in 2014/15 as Bayern manager.

His statement that “perhaps after seven years in which we have won six titles another team deserves to be crowned champions” which the English have turned into a flywheel, has something to do with what is in the back of Pep’s head. Because then he added that for him it is a challenge, noting that he loves challenges and he is not going to back down, now more than ever. So there is no white towel.